Epidemics begin in one of three model independent ways.

  • Exponential 
  • Power 
  • Linear 

COVID-19 grew exponentially in New York City and Mississippi until Stay-in-Place orders were declared - despite the vast differences in population density.

NYC has tamed an exponential epidemic, first by slowing the new infections to a merely linear daily increase then ultimately lowering the new cases to ever smaller numbers.

Mississippi also entered a prolonged linear phase - averaging 266 new cases a day - but after three months - on the Fourth of July - the numbers of new cases again accelerated. With a 2 week delay - the time course of severe COVID-19 - deaths also accelerated. 

Explore the striking similarities and important differences between NYC and Mississippi data in the COVID-19 menu to the right.