Initial COVID-19 in New York City illustrates an exponential growth. Click through the tabs and see for yourself.

 

 Initial COVID-19 in New York City illustrates an exponential growth. Click through the tabs and see for yourself.

First 5 Days

 

The first 5 days were unremarkable to many - only a few cases.

Perhaps 4 more cases each day than the day before.

First 5 Days - ??

 

The epidemiologists at the Public Health Department saw a very different progression of cases - an exponential growth of cases.

Day 6

 

Day six brought more cases than expected from a simple linear growth pattern.

Perhaps a growth according to a power function (a quadratic equation)?

Perhaps an exponential growth?

Day 7

 

Yes - an exponential !

New cases on day seven were definitely on the exponential curve!!

First 2 Weeks

 

! ! Plague ! !

Remarkably - the first 5 days predicted the course of the COVID-19 epidemic over the next two weeks.

The Mayor was convinced, and within days the Governor was too. The city closed down!

The Next Month

The next month did slow the epidemic to a linear growth pattern - averaging 4,600 new cases a day!

 

Finally - A Pause

Finally, a pause after two months.