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 Epidemics begin in one of three model independent ways.

 COVID-19 in New York City illustrates one such pattern. Tab through and see for yourself.


 

The first 5 days were unremarkable to many - only a few cases.

Perhaps 4 more cases each day than the day before.


 

The epidemiologists at the Public Health Department saw a very different progression of cases - an exponential growth of cases.


 

Day six brought more cases than expected from a simple linear growth pattern.

Perhaps a growth according to a power function (a quadratic equation)?

Perhaps an exponential growth?


 

Yes - an exponential !

New cases on day seven were definitely on the exponential curve!!


 

! ! Plague ! !

Remarkably - the first 5 days predicted the course of the COVID-19 epidemic over the next two weeks.

The Mayor was convinced, and within days the Governor was too. The city closed down!


The next month did slow the epidemic to a linear growth pattern - averaging 4,600 new cases a day!

 


Finally, a pause after two months.