Mississippi State Department of Health

Mississippi's State Board of Health was established in 1877 to protect and advance health throughout Mississippi.


COVID-19 by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University 

Johns Hopkins experts in global public health, infectious disease, and emergency preparedness have been at the forefront of the international response to COVID-19.  This website is a resource to help advance the understanding of the virus, inform the public, and brief policymakers in order to guide a response, improve care, and save lives.

 
STAT: The Covid-19 Tracker 

As the virus that causes Covid-19 spreads worldwide, this dashboard offers a snapshot of the crisis right now. Click on a country name to get a more detailed geographic breakdown at the state, province, or county level. Please note that because of limited testing capacity in some areas, the actual number of cases is believed to be higher.  

 

COVID Tracking Project - The Atlantic

The COVID Tracking Project is a volunteer organization launched from The Atlantic and dedicated to collecting and publishing the data required to understand the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States.


Rt Covid-19

Calculating Rt
The metric being tracked here (Rt) represents the effective reproduction rate of the virus calculated for each locale. It lets us estimate how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer.


How We Reopen Safely

We are a group of public health and crisis experts. With former experience working at the White House, Department of Health and Human Services, and on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. We are a non-partisan group, having worked across multiple administrations. We built this site to track each state's progress towards the critical interventions needed to stop the spread of COVID-19.

 

 

 Epidemics begin in one of three model independent ways.

  • Exponential 
  • Power 
  • Linear 

COVID-19 grew exponentially in New York City and Mississippi until Stay-in-Place orders were declared - despite the vast differences in population density.

NYC has tamed an exponential epidemic, first by slowing the new infections to a merely linear daily increase then ultimately lowering the new cases to ever smaller numbers.

Mississippi also entered a prolonged linear phase - averaging 266 new cases a day - but after three months - on the Fourth of July - the numbers of new cases again accelerated. With a 2 week delay - the time course of severe COVID-19 - deaths also accelerated. 

Explore the striking similarities and important differences between NYC and Mississippi data in the COVID-19 menu to the right.

 

 

 Epidemics begin in one of three model independent ways.

  • Exponential (Incidence accelerates rapidly)
    • 1918 Influenza (San Francisco, 1918)
    • Plague (Bombay, 1905)
    • Smallpox (Khuina, Iran, 1977)
  • Power (Incidence increases day by day)
    • Measles (London, 1948)
    • HIV/AIDS (New York City, 1982 – 2002)
  • Linear (Incidence remains constant)
    • Heart Disease
    • Cancer  

 COVID-19 in New York City illustrates one such pattern. Tab through and see for yourself.


 

The first 5 days were unremarkable to many - only a few cases.

Perhaps 4 more cases each day than the day before.


 

The epidemiologists at the Public Health Department saw a very different progression of cases - an exponential growth of cases.


 

Day six brought more cases than expected from a simple linear growth pattern.

Perhaps a growth according to a power function (a quadratic equation)?

Perhaps an exponential growth?


 

Yes - an exponential !

New cases on day seven were definitely on the exponential curve!!


 

! ! Plague ! !

Remarkably - the first 5 days predicted the course of the COVID-19 epidemic over the next two weeks.

The Mayor was convinced, and within days the Governor was too. The city closed down!


The next month did slow the epidemic to a linear growth pattern - averaging 4,600 new cases a day!

 


Finally, a pause after two months.

 

 Epidemics begin in one of three model independent ways.

  • Exponential (Incidence accelerates rapidly)
    • 1918 Influenza (San Francisco, 1918)
    • Plague (Bombay, 1905)
    • Smallpox (Khuina, Iran, 1977)
  • Power (Incidence increases day by day)
    • Measles (London, 1948)
    • HIV/AIDS (New York City, 1982 – 2002)
  • Linear (Incidence remains constant)
    • Heart Disease
    • Cancer  

 COVID-19 in Mississippi has grown persistently.


Cases and deaths have both grown persistently since March 11, 2020. (Data are the daily reports given by MSDH.)

Deaths lagged by 5 days - the latency between COVID-19's first symptoms and death. 

The Stay-in-Place proclamation(yellow marker) arrested the exponential growth of the cases as announced daily, leaving a quadratic growth phase (the darker red dotted trendline) until the relaxation of the Stay-at-Home orders (green marker). Since that time, there has been a fairly steady report of 275 cases a day (the lighter data points and trendline).

Deaths have continued to grow quadratically. 

This dichotomy between case reports and deaths is explored in the next tab.

 


Two distinct COVID-19 epidemics have existed side-by-side: Community and Long Term Care Facility Residents'.

Deaths in the community have grown linearly with time, 5 deaths a day since the Stay-in-Place order (yellow dot). Case determinations have been predominantly community-based, hence the linear pattern seen in the previous tab.

LTCF deaths have accelerated up to a much faster rate - after a short delay. Since the start of the relaxation of Stay-in-Place restrictions (green dot), 8 LTCF residents have died each day, on average.

(Red dots plot the Community COVID-19 deaths, according to the date on the death certificate; the brown are the LTCF Resident deaths. The most recent data points are incomplete counts - the recording of death certificates takes a little time. )

 


The cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths grew exponentially for the first few days of the Mississippi epidemic, just as in New York City. This threat cannot be understated. Such an initial growth rate would point to 24 deaths a day on April 1, ∼10,000 deaths a day by May and millions a day shortly thereafter.

The mortality rate was arrested at 5/day when Stay-in-Place was ordered (left graph), causing deaths to accumulate linearly (right graph). These orders have had a lasting effect that has outlived subsequent orders (starting at the green dot) relaxing social distancing.

The per-capita number of community based COVID-19 Deaths is 12 per 100,000 thus far, which is near the median figure for the United States. This is less than a tenth of New York, so it is not surprising that few people in Mississippi know acquaintances who have contracted the virus.

  • Remember:
  •    the last two or three days of data are very incomplete.
  •    it does take time to finally register all the deaths - up to two weeks.
  •    so the meaning of any small trend is uncertain.

 


Deaths of residents of Long Term Care Facilities now exceed half the Mississippi COVID-19 deaths.

The first LTCF death was March 21, 2020. Deaths grew as a cubic function of time, and so have caught up - and surpassed - the number of community deaths.

The daily log of LTCF deaths (per death certificates) grows linearly. The smaller numbers in the last few days reflect the lag in registering death certificates.